Base metals generally fell, polysilicon rose by 4.32%, silicon metal rose by over 3%, and ferrous metals series mostly rose [SMM midday review]

SMM News on June 30:

Metal Markets:

As of the midday close, domestic base metals showed mixed performance: SHFE copper rose 0.1% and SHFE nickel gained 0.17%. SHFE aluminum dipped slightly. SHFE zinc edged up while SHFE tin fell 0.64%. SHFE lead declined 0.29%.

Additionally, the most-traded aluminum casting futures contract dropped 0.15%, alumina's most-traded contract advanced 0.24%. Lithium carbonate fell 0.22%, silicon metal rose 3.45%, and polysilicon surged 4.32%.

All ferrous metals series rose: iron ore gained 0.21%, rebar rose 0.43%, HRC rose 0.22%, and stainless steel climbed 0.48%. For coking coal and coke: coking coal rose 1.14% while coke gained 0.82%.

Overseas metal markets saw nearly all LME metals decline as of 11:43, with LME copper and LME aluminum posting marginal losses below 0.1%. LME nickel fell 0.13%, LME zinc dropped 0.2%, LME tin declined 0.64%, while LME lead rose 0.1%.

Precious metals: COMEX gold rose 0.1% and COMEX silver fell 0.11% as of 11:43. Domestically, SHFE gold dropped 0.85% and SHFE silver fell 0.92%.

As of the midday close, the most-traded European container shipping futures contract fell 2.19% to close at 1,756.5 points.

Partial futures market data as of 11:43 on June 30:

》June 30 SMM Metal Spot Prices

Spot & Fundamentals

Copper:Today in Guangdong, spot #1 copper cathode prices against the front-month contract ranged from a premium of 30 yuan/mt to 100 yuan/mt, with an average premium of 65 yuan/mt - down 30 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. SX-EW copper was quoted at discounts of 30 yuan/mt to 10 yuan/mt, averaging a 20 yuan/mt discount - down 10 yuan/mt from the prior session. The average price of #1 copper cathode in Guangdong was 79,940 yuan/mt (-130 yuan/mt day-on-day), while SX-EW copper averaged 7,985 yuan/mt (-110 yuan/mt). Spot market: Guangdong inventories started to rise again after the weekend amid weak downstream demand approaching mid-year. Suppliers actively delivered to warehouses, with attention on whether inventories continue increasing tomorrow...》Click for details

Macro Front

Domestic Updates:

[NBS: June PMI at 49.7%, Up 0.2 Percentage Point MoM; Manufacturing Recovery Expands]The China Federation of Logistics & Purchasing and the NBS's Services Survey Center jointly announced today (June 30) China's June PMI figures. The manufacturing PMI rose for the second consecutive month, indicating sustained improvement in manufacturing conditions with an expanded recovery scope. In June, China's manufacturing PMI stood at 49.7%, up 0.2 percentage points MoM, marking two consecutive months of increase. Among the 21 industries surveyed, 11 were in expansion territory, an increase of 4 from the previous month, indicating a broader expansion in the manufacturing sector. In June, as the impact of external disruptions diminished, China's manufacturing sector returned to normal operation, with stable endogenous economic drivers and an overall rebound in market demand. The new orders index reached 50.2%, returning to expansion territory after two consecutive months below 50%. Meanwhile, manufacturing exports also gradually recovered, with the new export orders index rising for two consecutive months.》Click for details

The People's Bank of China conducted 331.5 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repo operations today, with an operating interest rate of 1.40%, unchanged from the previous rate. As 220.5 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repos matured today, a net injection of 111 billion yuan was achieved.

►On June 30, the central parity rate of the RMB against the US dollar in the inter-bank foreign exchange market was 7.1586 yuan per US dollar.

US dollar updates:

As of 11:43, the US dollar index rose by 0.01% to 97.26. Markets are betting on more interest rate cuts by the US Fed, and the timing of these cuts may be earlier than previously expected, as some US data indicate a weakening economy. A report released last Friday showed an unexpected decline in US consumer spending in May, as the boost from pre-tariff hikes purchases of cars and other goods faded, while monthly inflation remained mild. Traders expect interest rates to be cut by 65 basis points before the end of the year, up from 46 basis points a week ago.

Data updates:

Today, the final annual growth rate of production-based GDP for Q1 in the UK, the final quarterly growth rate of production-based GDP for Q1 in the UK, the monthly growth rate of actual retail sales in Germany for May, the annual growth rate of actual retail sales in Germany for May, Switzerland's official reserve assets for May, Germany's seasonally adjusted unemployment rate for June, the annual growth rate of seasonally adjusted M3 money supply in the Eurozone for May, the preliminary annual growth rate of Germany's CPI for June, and the US Chicago PMI for June, among other data, will be released. Additionally, attention should be paid to the speech by Bostic, the 2027 FOMC voter and Atlanta Fed President, on the US economic outlook.

Crude oil updates:

Both crude oil futures dropped slightly. As of 11:43, US crude oil fell by 0.46%, and Brent crude oil fell by 0.24%. Oil prices were under pressure due to the easing of geopolitical risks in the Middle East and the increased likelihood of OPEC raising production again in August, boosting supply prospects.

Four OPEC delegates said the organization would announce another significant production increase of 411,000 barrels per day in August, aiming to regain market share. Eight OPEC member countries will convene a meeting on July 6. If a production increase agreement is reached, it would bring OPEC's year-to-date supply growth to 1.78 million barrels per day, equivalent to over 1.5% of total global demand.

U.S. energy services company Baker Hughes stated in its closely watched report that American energy firms have reduced oil and natural gas rig counts for four consecutive months, bringing the total rig count to its lowest level since October 2021. During the week ended June 27, the combined U.S. oil and natural gas rig count - a leading indicator for future production - dropped by 7 to 547, marking the lowest level since November 2021. This represents a year-on-year decrease of 34 rigs, or 6%. (Webstock Inc.)

Spot Market Overview:

►Year-end settlement period sees mediocre trading activity between buyers and sellers - overall transactions lag behind last Friday [SMM South China Spot Copper]

►June 30 period market remains quiet with dismal transaction activity [SMM North China Spot CopperZ36/>►

Shanghai zinc: Bearish market sentiment persists with limited transaction improvements [SMM Midday Review]

►Tianjin zinc: Futures market continues fluctuating at highs as some traders offer at discounts [SMM Midday Review]

►China's SMM-assessed antimony ingot production for June 2025 is expected to drop sharply by approximately 21.5% MoM [SMM Data]

Updates on other metal spot midday reviews coming soon - please refresh for the latest information